What impact might the economic crisis have on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia?

Objective: To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design: To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods: Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results: In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions: The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia

Economic conditions around the world are likely to deteriorate in the short to medium term. The potential impact of this crisis on the spread of HIV is not clear. Government revenues and aid flows from international donors may face constraints, possibly leading to reductions in funding for HIV programs. Economic conditions (leading to increases in unemployment, for example) may also have an indirect impact on HIV epidemics by affecting the behaviour of individual people. Some behavioural changes may influence the rate of HIV transmission. This report presents findings from a study that investigates the potential impact of the economic crisis on HIV epidemics through the use of mathematical modelling. The potential epidemiological impacts of changes in the economy are explored for two distinctly characterised HIV epidemics: (i) a well-defined, established, and generalised HIV epidemic (specifically Cambodia, where incidence is declining); (ii) an HIV epidemic in its early expansion phase (specifically Papua New Guinea, where incidence has not yet peaked). Country-specific data are used for both settings and the models calibrated to accurately reflect the unique HIV epidemics in each population in terms of both incidence and prevalence. Models calibrated to describe the past and present epidemics are then used to forecast epidemic trajectories over the next few years under assumptions that behavioural or program conditions may change due to economic conditions. It should be noted that there are very limited solid data on how HIV/AIDS program funds may decrease or how social determinants related to HIV risk may change due to the economic crisis. Potential changes in key relevant factors were explored, along with sensitivity ranges around these assumptions, based on extensive discussions with in-country and international experts and stakeholders. As with all mathematical models, assumptions should be reviewed critically and results interpreted cautiously.

The Caribbean in the context of the global economic crisis

Includes bibliography

The tourism sector and the global economic crisis: development implicatins for the Caribbean

Over the past two years the global economy has experienced substantial economic turmoil, resulting in severe economic contraction. While there has been a recent return to growth, this situation has impacted all economic sectors worldwide. In the highly tourism-dependent region of the Caribbean, the impact of the global economic crisis has been most notable on the tourism sector, which, from the early 1990s, became the key driver of economic growth for the region. The eventual emergence of this sector reflects an economic development history which was previously underpinned by the export of agricultural commodities, and subsequently by the adoption of the import substitution industrialization model as promulgated by Arthur Lewis. This was further stimulated by spectacular economic contraction in Caribbean economies during the 1980s as a result of changes in the global terms of trade for commodities, generally low levels of competitiveness for manufactured goods, as well as weak institutional and governance frameworks. Ultimately, many economies began to reflect fiscal and balance of payments constraints. By the end of the 1990s, too, evidence of declining competitiveness even in the tourism sector began to become apparent particularly when evaluated under the framework of the Butler Tourism Area Life- Cycle (TALC) model. The recent economic crisis, therefore, provides an opportunity to reflect on the overall approach to economic development in the Caribbean, and to assess the implications of the region’s response to the crisis. This analysis makes the case for the future development of the sector to be based on two broad strategies. The first is to deepen the integration of the tourism sector into the broader economy through the diversification of the regional tourism product, as well as the enhancement of linkages with other sectors, while the second is to expand the tourism sector into a total service economy through the introduction of new services. Considering linkages, the development of clusters and value chains to support the tourism sector is identified with respect to agriculture and food, handicraft, and furnishings. Among the new services identified are education, wellness, yachting and boating, financial services, and information and communications technologies (ICT). This overall strategy is deemed to be better suited to the macroeconomic realities of the Caribbean, where high labour costs and other structural rigidities require a high-valued specialty tourism product in order to sustain the sector’s global competitiveness.

Surviving the global economic crisis in the automotive industry through sustainable supplier management

This chapter looks at how the current global economic crisis has impacted upon the global automotive industry from an operations and supply chain perspective. It presents an empirical and theoretical background to help long and short term planning for organisations experiencing adverse trading conditions. The empirical research study (conducted between 2004-07 primarily in Germany) revealed that organisations are able to make short term improvements to performance by reducing costs and making process and structural improvements, but in the long term the deeper rooted causes of the industry can in part only be dealt with by improving interfirm R&D collaborations based upon competencies rather than cost related issues. A new approach known as Collaborative Enterprise Governance is presented which supports the design and management of competitive sustainable enterprises; it consists of a data capture tool, a body of knowledge and a dynamic reference grid to show how many part-to-part company relationships can exist simultaneously to make up productprocess focused enterprises. Examples from the German automotive industry are given, impact upon the overall product development lifecycle and the implications for organisational strategists are discussed. © 2010 Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved.

Tanulságok a gazdasági és monetáris unió számára a 2008-as világgazdasági válság kapcsán (Lessons for the Economic and Monetary Union from the 2008 global economic crisis)

Írásunkban a 2008-ban kitört világgazdasági válságnak a Gazdasági és Monetáris Unióra gyakorolt hatásait elemezzük. Tanulmányunkban rávilágítunk a Gazdasági és Monetáris Unió két olyan problémájára, amelyek a válság után váltak igazán nyilvánvalóvá. Egyrészt a görög államcsődveszély, illetve egyes, korábban jól teljesítő országok botladozása jelzi, hogy a Monetáris Unió intézményrendszere legalábbis hiányos. A másik kérdés összefügg az előzővel, és azon országok szemszögéből érdekes, amelyek csatlakozni kívánnak a GMU-hoz: felerősödtek azok a vélemények, amelyek a csatlakozás elhalasztása mellett foglalnak állást. Tanulmányunk második részében ezt a kérdést járjuk körbe. / === / In our paper we are analyze the effects of the economic crisis of 2008 on the Economic and Monetary Union. We are focusing on two core problems of the EMU which came to surface only after the outbreak of the crisis. First, we address the fiscal problems of Greece and other member states which performed well before the crisis. These problems show that there are major institutional shortcomings in the Monetary Union. The second question is connected to the first one and concerns the new member states of the European Union and their strategies to join the Euro zone. After the crisis more and more voices in the new member states suggest postponing EMU membership.

Ireland and the global economic crisis: one island, two different experiences

In this chapter, Ó hAdhmaill argues that responses to the global economic crisis which emerged in 2008 reflected a dominant ideological discourse, with ‘austerity’ being a tool in a wider agenda to reassert neoliberalist thinking in the global economy and welfare provision in the richer countries. In Ireland, North and South, however, the experience of, and responses to, the crisis and ‘austerity’ were different, reflecting different social, economic, and political contexts and influences, as well as different levels of democratic control. Ó hAdhmaill outlines some of these differences and argues that, while democratic control in smaller jurisdictions may be limited by the ‘real rulers’ of the world, global capital, people still have ‘agency’ and do not have to be mere passive observers of unfolding events.

Report on the International Training Centre on Censuses and Statistics for Southeast Asia and Oceania, held at New Delhi and Calcutta, India, from November 1949 to February 1950 /

Mode of access: Internet.

Creating new folk opera forms of applied theatre for HIV and AIDS education in Papua New Guinea

This research investigated the potential of folk opera as a tool for HIV and AIDS education in Papua New Guinea. It began with an investigation on the indigenous performativities and theatricalities of Papua New Guineans, conducting an audit of eight selected performance traditions in Papua New Guinea. These traditions were analysed, and five cultural forms and twenty performance elements were drawn out for further exploration. These elements were fused and combined with theatre techniques from western theatre traditions, through a script development process involving Australians, Papua New Guineans and international collaborators. The resulting folk opera, entitled Kumul, demonstrates what Murphy (2010) has termed story force, picture force, and feeling force, in the service of a story designed to educate Papua New Guinean audiences about HIV and the need to adopt safer sexual practices. Kumul is the story of a young man faced with decisions on whether or not to engage in risky sexual behaviours. Kumul's narrative is carefully framed within selected Papua New Guinean beliefs drawn from the audit to deliver HIV and AIDS messages using symbolic and metaphoric communication techniques without offending people. The folk opera Kumul was trialled in two communities in Papua New Guinea: a village community and an urban settlement area. Kumul is recognisable to Papua New Guinean audiences because it reflects their lifestyle and a worldview, which connects them to their beliefs and spirituality, and the larger cosmological order. Feedback from audience members indicated that the performance facilitated HIV and AIDS communication, increased people's awareness of HIV and AIDS, and encouraged behaviour change. Tellingly, in one performance venue, forty people queued for Voluntary Testing and Counseling immediately after the performance. Twenty of these people were tested on that night and the other twenty were tested the following day. Many of the volunteers were young men – a demographic historically difficult to engage in HIV testing. This encouraging result indicates that the Kumul folk opera form of applied theatre could be useful for facilitating communication and education regarding sexual health and safer sexual behaviours in Papua New Guinea. Feedback from participants, audience members and other research stakeholders suggests that the form might also be adapted to address other social and development issues, particularly in the areas of health and social justice.

Mile-a-minute (Mikania micrantha): its distribution, growth and physical and socio-economic impacts in Papua New Guinea

Mikania micrantha, Kunth. H.B.K (Asteraceae) or mile-a-minute is a weed of Neotropical origin in 17 Pacific Island countries. It is becoming increasingly regarded as an invasive weed in Papua New Guinea and is now the focus of an Australian Government-funded biological control program. As part of the program, growth rates, distribution and physical and socia-economic impacts were studied to obtain baseline data and to assist with the field release of biological control agents. Through public awareness campaigns and dedicated surveys, mikania has been reported in most lowland provinces. It is particularly widespread in East New Britain and West New Britain Province. In field trials, mikania grew more than 1 metre per month in open sunny areas but slightly slower when growing under cocoa. The weed invades a wide range of land types, impacting on plantations and food gardens, smothering pawpaw, young cocoa, banana, taro, young oil palms and ornamental plants. In socia-economic surveys, mikania was found to have severe impacts on crop production and income generated through reduced yields and high weeding costs. These studies suggest that there would be substantial benefits to the community if biological control of mikania is successful.

Development in Papua New Guinea : various meanings in the context of logging in West New Britain

Development in Papua New Guinea ... is research into village level issues of logging. In New Britain, nationals are offered royalties for cutting their rainforest. Information about ecology and biodiversity is usually late in coming, and such information to them does not appear to advance their development. This thesis offers the most specific method for dealing with small communities in Papua New Guinea, and confronts the issue of self development. It is posited that all other development must encourage self development in Papua New Guinea. Evidence brought here shows the need to make the Melanesian community central to development strategies.

To accomplish such a strategy, there is a need to consider Melanesian cultures. An explanation of world views ensues. The world views of people of the Pasismanua region, of New Britain's south coast, was compared broadly with Melanesian cultures and Melanesian development in a variety of circumstances. Consequently, the suggestions made are broadly applicable to situations where resources must be well monitored. There are many such situations in Pacific nations, which suggests that the thesis will be of usc to a wide research community.

Since research is grounded in ethnographic as well as other research, this kind of study generates many other research questions, and the research is designed to lead to other studies. Certain aspects of the design become disclosed when the research has progressed. As well, the background of an expatriate researcher is intrusive, and must be mitigated by some form of participation in the host culture. This is a central tenet of the thesis. This participation increases sensitivity to culture and yields a circumspect consideration of the colonial issue. Occupied for many years by colonial powers especially Australia, all New Guinea including West New Britain shows the effects of colonisation. It also shows evidence of the new colonialism of cash-cropping, and of the destruction of biodiversity. This becomes a central theme, as does the position of this researcher as a participant in a global economic culture encroaching on and invited by Papua New Guinea.

Tracing of patients lost to follow-up and HIV transmission: Mathematical modelling study based on two large ART programmes in Malawi

OBJECTIVES: Treatment as prevention depends on retaining HIV-infected patients in care. We investigated the effect on HIV transmission of bringing patients lost to follow up (LTFU) back into care. DESIGN: Mathematical model. METHODS: Stochastic mathematical model of cohorts of 1000 HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART), based on data from two clinics in Lilongwe, Malawi. We calculated cohort viral load (CVL; sum of individual mean viral loads each year) and used a mathematical relationship between viral load and transmission probability to estimate the number of new HIV infections. We simulated four scenarios: 'no LTFU' (all patients stay in care); 'no tracing' (patients LTFU are not traced); 'immediate tracing' (after missed clinic appointment); and, 'delayed tracing' (after six months). RESULTS: About 440 of 1000 patients were LTFU over five years. CVL (million copies/ml per 1000 patients) were 3.7 (95% prediction interval [PrI] 2.9-4.9) for no LTFU, 8.6 (95% PrI 7.3-10.0) for no tracing, 7.7 (95% PrI 6.2-9.1) for immediate, and 8.0 (95% PrI 6.7-9.5) for delayed tracing. Comparing no LTFU with no tracing the number of new infections increased from 33 (95% PrI 29-38) to 54 (95% PrI 47-60) per 1000 patients. Immediate tracing prevented 3.6 (95% PrI -3.3-12.8) and delayed tracing 2.5 (95% PrI -5.8-11.1) new infections per 1000. Immediate tracing was more efficient than delayed tracing: 116 and to 142 tracing efforts, respectively, were needed to prevent one new infection. CONCLUSION: Tracing of patients LTFU enhances the preventive effect of ART, but the number of transmissions prevented is small.

Using mathematical modelling to evaluate drivers and predict trajectories of HIV and STI epidemics in South East Asian and Australian populations

Objective To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.